UFC 318 Free and Top Plays - July 19th

We had a sterling +6.5 unit performance betting UFC Nashville. Let's do it again and profit even more this Saturday, in what should be a phenomenal card.

UFC 318 Free Plays

Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier

12:15 AM EST. Two UFC legends and two of the best boxers in MMA will clash on Saturday for the third time in their careers. Their last battle was back in 2019, an unexpected slobberknocker between two rising stars; the second is too long ago to consider (2012). Dustin Poirier came away with a decision victory on that night but these are two completely different fighters now. At 33 and with 34 pro fights to his name, Max is still in the prime of his career and as refined a striker as he's ever been, shown plainly in two dominant recent victories against Justin Gaethje and Chan Sung Jung. Poirier is as sharp as it gets from a boxing standpoint, but lately his defense has shown vulnerabilities. The past few years he defeared aging fighters but fell short against the top-tier. We think this is another statement from the Hawaiin.

When two grizzled veterans like Holloway and Poirier face off, there's bound to be supreme violence. We're just not sure their chins can take it like they used to. Holloway is known for his high output, breaking the significant-strike record (400) in a famous 2019 UFC bout against Calvin Kattar. In 2019 he also went the distance with Poirier, proving unreal toughness in his first lightweight bout, and he was never knocked out until his last fight against the incomparable Illia Topuria. But all it takes is one KO to thin-a-chin, and Poirier hits as hard as anyone in the division (just ask Connor McGregor). On the other side, two of Poirier's three KO losses came in his last four fights, and he sustained serious damage against Islam Makhachev. We all want a long war, but value resides in two elite boxers getting the job done early.

Wagers:

• Max Holloway to win by TKO/KO (+400 at FanDuel), to win 2 units

• Holloway/Poirier under 4.5 rounds (+125 at BetMGM), to win 1.25 units

---

Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez

11:15 PM EST. Whenever we think of Kevin Holland, our minds immediately go to his painstaking bout against Michael "Venom" Page a few years ago. Holland hardly seemed interested. Perhaps almost too talented, Holland always has a reach advantage (in this case it's seven full inches) and he's well-versed in every area of MMA. Lately he's shown a different side, far more focused and it's resulted in an impressive two-win streak, but we worry he'll be overconfident again this Saturday. "D-Rod" likes to close the distance and make fights dirty, an approach he's used to destroy rangy fighters like Holland in the past, and at 38 this is his last chance to enter the official welterweight rankings. Our odds make this match far closer to even, and we like Rodriguez to bloody-up the unsuspecting favorite to victory.

Wager: Daniel Rodriguez moneyline (+410 at DraftKings), to win 2.05 units

---

UFC 318 Top Plays

Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov

11:45 PM EST. Storming into the UFC scene in early 2017 with four straight KO victories, Paulo Costa was on the road to superstardom. He then defeated Yoel Romero via decision, a win that catapulted the Brazilian to a middleweight title bout against phenom Israel Adesanya, a fight he lost in the second round (TKO). Costa is just 1-4 in his last five battles, barely active for the past five years. Meanwhile, Kopylov's ascension hasn't come without trials, but the Russian has improved in every