UFC 317: Free and Top Plays

We like to take dogs in UFC wagering, but oddsmakers have been far sharper in recent years and the chalk has triumphed. We're -6 units this year, but more big Ws will come. Onto our UFC 317 bets!

Niko Price vs. Jacobe Smith (-2500)

7:40 PM EST. This is all about the price. Niko Price is the perfect fighter to face up and comer Jacobe Smith, who has looked explosive and fantastic and is probably deserving of these odds. But Price, at 36, has seen it all. True, he’s just 2-6 since 2020 and at his age his best days are far behind him, but Smith, who is far less experienced at this level (only one UFC fight) will approach this bout with maximum confidence. That means he might underestimate the wild American, who’s striking is still extremely dangerous. Price will come packing with a nice reach advantage and 2-inch height advantage to boot. Oh and by the way, he’s only been finished early, as in the first round, twice in his entire career. If Price can hang around, watch out.

Wagers:

• Nike Price moneyline (+1200 at BetOnline), 0.25 units to win 3 units

• Over 1.5 rounds (+210 at BetOnline), to win 1.05 units

---

Tracy Cortez (-260) vs. Viviane Araujo

8:40 PM EST. Tracey Cortez experienced her first loss against the very formidable former champ, Rose Namajunas, but that’s nothing to bat an eye at. Rose is already a legend in the UFC and she’s now excelling in her second weight class. Cortez is young and needs more experience but her tools are very legit. After a year off and having to battle through injury, we expect the harsh lessons of the UFC to pay dividends. Viviane Araujo is probably a more powerful puncher and has plenty of weapons herself, including world-class jiu jitsu, but we expect Cortez to show patience and find success on the mat, where she can bleed out a long victory.

Wager: Tracy Cortez by decision (-190 at DraftKings), to win 1 unit

---

Renato Moicano (-110) vs. Beneil Dariush

10:45 PM EST. Renato Moicano is a bad matchup for Dariush. Both fighters have faced a who’s-who in the lightweight division, and both have largely only had success unless they face the very best. But Moicano’s “chance” to win a title was no gimme-fight from Dana White. He has legitimate, scary power in his striking and Dariush, who’s lost against similar heavy-handed dudes before, isn’t afraid to close distance and offer opportunities to his opponents. Moicano is too technically sound to miss in those circumstances, and Dariush’s chin can’t be getting any thicker.

Wagers:

• Renato Moicano by KO/TKO (+500 at FanDuel), to win 2.5 units

• Under 2.5 (-118 at FanDuel), to win 1 unit

---

Brandon Royval vs. Joshua Van (-120)

11:15 PM EST. Joshua Van is a deserving favorite here but let’s review how far Brandon Royval has come. The dude has only faced the best of the best and the most