NBA Finals Game 7 Prediction and Bets
We've made it to the final showdown of the NBA season. With a +300 wager on OKC winning 4-3 in our pockets, below is our prediction and wager.
Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder
8:10 PM EST. Let’s talk sensibly and simply about this final battle, since by now you know everything about these two teams. The Thunder have been the projected NBA Finals winner for most of the season, ascending to the best record, top spot in the West, and best overall net rating of any roster. They also have the league’s MVP and a roster construction that’s deep, layered, and built with calculated intention.
We have no doubt that the Thunder own the better roster, but we’d be remiss to dismiss (see what I did there) the prowess of the Pacers in this series. At this point, there’s nothing flukey about Indiana’s story.
VSiN analyst Wes Reynolds points out that “the Pacers bench has outscored the Thunder on average of 41.5-30.8 (+10.7 margin).” We’ve all seen the outrageous effort and corresponding effect of players like TJ McConnell and Obi Toppin, but the Pacers just haven’t been as consistent this season; that’s why they haven’t gained the same brand-appeal as OKC. It also helps that the Thunder generated one of the NBA’s biggest stars in Shae-Gilgeous Alexander, with a very Scottie Pippen-like number-two in Jalen Williams. The Thunder are the manifestation of what the traditional NBA fan considers elite, while the Pacers, who really only played up to their potential in the back half of the regular season, are still seen as the blue-collar underdog that shouldn’t be in this position.
We don’t see it that way at all. Regardless of what the data says (the Thunder rate as the NBA’s best defense all season), we’ve observed first-class defense from the Pacers at key juncture points in the playoffs, including a masterful effort in game six, holding OKC to just 42 points in the first half and 91 total. Of course, the Thunder will improve in game seven at home, and we know they’ve only lost back-to-back games on two occasions this season, a truly unbelievable stat.
But we also know that Rick Carlisle and his players are equally incredible at executing elite one-game strategies when they need to. In the close-out game of the Eastern Conference Finals, Indiana shot 54.1% from the field, including a 51.5% rate from beyond the arc, to topple the Knicks. They were never behind at the end of any quarter of that final game, either. With Tyrese’s calf-troubles seemingly behind us, the Pacers will be well-prepared and equipped with an excellent plan to topple the mighty Thunder, and let’s face it— the pressure is on OKC.
Playing at home helps, but it also creates a dynamic where, at this point, every bettor and NBA-critic expects OKC to finally close it out. There is no such expectation for their opponent, who continues to play the far more pleasurable role of the heroic underdog, the David versus the Goliath, and it’s even more endearing because of how collectively they win (the Pacers’ top-7 players all average double-digit scoring this season).
The spread keeps ticking down for good reason. Get your popcorn ready and enjoy tonight’s finale; it should be yet another highly entertaining clash.
Prediction: Thunder: 108, Pacers: 105
Wagers:
Second Half under 109 (-115 at DraftKings), to win 1 unit
TJ McConnell over 9.5 points (-118 at FanDuel), to win 1 unit
Pacers +7 (-108 at Bookmaker), to win 1.5 units