Early NFL Week 1 Analysis with Four Official Plays - Wednesday, June 3rd

Last year we finished 70-50 (58%), +37.34 units from Week 10 to the Super Bowl. Don't let anyone tell you the NFL is still "far away." They're lying. Week 1 analysis and four top plays, below.

Jun 03, 2026

∙ Paid

Myles Garrett sees trade to Rams as path to postseason success - WFTV

Week 1 is still a solid three months away and therefore we can't be too aggressive with our takes. We might even change our opinion between now and then. At the same time, there are a few obvious value spots that we cannot ignore, aka the odds are too good not to take now. More importantly, we expect these odds to change and grant less mathematical value as the season nears.

I’m also excited to announce that I’ve significantly modified my power ratings-formula leading into the 2026 season. Without getting too granular, Weeks 1-9 the last two seasons were damn-near catastrophic. I eked my way out of a big hole with a strong second half in both cases, but I win contests when I can do it on both ends. I’m confident I’ve identified and fixed the issue.

For those who haven’t already taken advantage, I encourage you to buy a monthly ($149) or annual package ($999) before July 1, which is when prices will rise for the NFL season (after June 30 those prices will move to $249/month and $1499/year).

I can’t WAIT for this football season! We’re +35 units in all 2026 bets - onto more!

Check out our full NBA Finals preview!

Sam Darnold Is A Super Bowl Champion Quarterback: 'That's Something You Can't Take From Him'

Game spreads are from BetOnline.ag

Patriots at Seahawks (-4)

Wednesday, September 9th, 8:20 PM EST. The Seahawks have a new offensive coordinator and that might cause some initial challenges, but this was the same spread in Super Bowl 60, where they completely dominated the Patriots. They’re still as loaded, they’re at home playing in one of the best home field advantages in the league, and Mike Vrabel’s offseason controversy can’t be a helpful factor leading into the season launch. I have a feeling this will only rise and I’m bullish that Seattle pulls away.

Wager: Seahawks -3.5 (-115 at Bovada and DK), to win 2 units

49ers at Rams (-3.5)

Thursday, 8:35 PM EST. There are too many intangibles to spend our hard earned money on this game, which will air across the world but will take place in the morning in Australia. Kyle Shanahan has always had Sean McVay's number, but I like the energy coming from Rams camp and their decisions this off-season; most notably their trade for Myles Garrett, which has Aaron Donald wanting to come back in the mix. The Rams are a dangerous, dangerous team this season, but that doesn’t mean it’ll all come together in Week 1, either.

Lean, 49ers +3.5

Ravens (-3.5) at Colts

1:00 PM EST. The Ravens have a new coach and new offensive coordinator to modernize their play-calling. The offensive role-players that matter are all the same, but of course the signing of Trey Hendrickson and changes to their offensive line have Baltimore hopeful for even better results. While I expect their defense to improve (I believe in Jesse Minter), I’m hesitant to expect production from an offense that’s fizzled too many times, despite the enigmatic nature of their QB. This is also a great spot for the Colts, undervalued at home, and at this point their roster is legitimately comparable to Baltimore. This is also one of those sneaky spots where Shane Steichen busts out a bunch of creativity Week 1 in front of an Indianapolis crowd. I think the Colts could win this straight up.

Lean, Colts +3.5

Bills (-1) at Texans

1:00 PM EST. This is a very interesting game for obvious reasons, but none more than the fact that CJ Stroud completely shit the bed in last year’s playoffs and now his job and future is on the line, at least in Houston. Buffalo is notoriously explosive to start this season and I would expect them to run away with this one, but the Texans’ defense is no joke and they can probably keep them in this game early. I love that Buffalo signed DJ Moore, a true, big #1 target for Josh Allen, and other talent to boost their defense (edge rusher Bradley Chubb was signed to a multi-year deal and their secondary was transformed with the additions of C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Geno Stone, and Dee Alford). Putting it simply, I’d take the Bills to come out on fire before investing in a CJ Stroud redemption spot.

Lean, Bills -1

Bears (-2.5) at Panthers

1:00 PM EST. I can't help but wonder if the Bears 2026 season will look a lot like the Texans or Commanders in 2025, where those offenses took significant steps back and variance was largely against them. The difference is Chicago’s quarterback has no setbacks or physical limitations, and in year-3 we have plenty of reasons to believe he’ll be even better. That said, Chicago plays down to their competition and was better in bigger games last year, while the Panthers’ roster is improved and this will be a huge home game for them to start the season. I’m not bullish on either side, at least not yet, but Carolina already feels like a trap game for Chicago in Week 1.

Lean, Panthers +2.5

Browns at Jaguars (-7.5)

1:00 PM EST. As always there are high hopes for both of these franchises and each roster has exciting new changes. A new coaching staff led by Todd Monken and the departure of Myles Garrett are the signature changes in Cleveland. They also have a battle at QB with DeShaun Watson returning into the fold, and the addition of Jared Verse adds to a very talented defense. Jacksonville’s changes are harder to see on paper, mostly adding to their depth and changing a few names on the coaching staff. They certainly ascended last year behind new coach Liam Cohen, winning 8 straight to end the regular season and nearly defeating Buffalo in the wildcard round. In the end it was more mistakes by Trevor Lawrence that ended their campaign, and at this point we consider the former Clemson star to be a very average thrower. This is a ton of points for a Week 1 contest, especially for a program that might’ve already peaked. Cleveland is far better at home against the spread, though; something to keep in mind.

Lean, Browns +7.5

Saints at Lions (-7)

1:00 PM EST. The Saints have done a good job bolstering their offense in the offseason, a group that’s already on the rise thanks to stable QB play from Tyler Shough and better-than-expected outcomes from new coach Kellen Moore. Still, even the best teams are vulnerable in Motown, where the Saints will play a Lions’ team that’s outscored opponents by 76 points last season at Ford Field. Detroit has questions on their offensive line and ongoing challenges on defense, but if they can provide decent protection for Jared Goff it’s likely they put margin on New Orleans.

Lean, Lions -7

Jets at Titans (-2.5)

1:00 PM EST. Robert Saleh revenge game? Sure. I think Tennessee has improved their roster enough to gain somewhat better results, but a new coach and an unrefined second-year QB (Cam Ward) gives me pause. On the other side, the cyclically pitiful Jets will travel for their opener and while I love some of their defensive additions (Minkah Fitzpatrick, David Onyemata, Joseph Ossai, and Kingsley Enagbare), I can’t believe in Geno Smith part II, nor do I think Aaron Glenn is a very good coach.

AVOID THIS STINKER

Bucs at Bengals (-3.5)

1:00 PM EST. The Bengals have made massive changes to their defense and we’re buying the hype. Joe Burrow is vocally excited for this season and poised to prove that with above average defensive talent, he can return to the Super Bowl. I believe that, too (Joe Burrow is my #1 rated QB and has been for the past three seasons). It’s hard to ignore the upgrades: Jonathan Allen, Boye Mafe, Cashius Howell, and most of all: Dexter Lawrence. On a great roster, “sexy Dexy” is set to shine and frankly we can’t blame him for his frustration with Big Blue, which eventually led to his departure. Cincinnati also added more depth on their offensive line. I loved their offseason and other than an unproven secondary I don’t see many holes on their roster. The Bucs are coming off a clumsy season that ended far below expectations. Those expectations might’ve been too lofty to begin with. Tampa overhauled their defense and Mike Evans is no longer on the team, but I don’t see where they improved, personally. I lean a big start for the home team at the jungle.

Lean, Bengals -3.5